Regardless of whether the six-party talks continue, China will always be the one with the main influence on and self-interest in North Korea’s future stability.  China doesn’t want to see a unified Korea anytime soon, and it doesn’t want to deal with turmoil on its border that could lead to a massive refugee crisis.

With leadership change on the horizon, it seems likely that Kim Jong-Il will seek to set a foreign policy course and domestic development trajectory for his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, to implement.    By providing economic security (and opportunity), China can also seek to dissemble any nuclear infrastructure that North Korea has established – but it should be noted that border security, not nuclear threats, are China’s main concern.  China is also motivated to remove the nuclear threat, but its methods and timeline are inherently different from ours.

The other variable to contend with will be the American public’s perception/opinion of this evolution and what the reaction of our politicians will be.  For example, it seems highly unlikely that the US will ever want to see the six-party talks end (despite a lack of progress over 7 years).  Such an ending would result in too many headlines.  Fortunately, China doesn’t usually seek to be the sole actor responsible for extra-territorial security.  So while reality will be China as the main actor, perception will focus on a face-saving multi-lateral management.

CTP Podcast – The Good and The Bad of Foreign Media Reporting on China (041810)

At the same time, China publicly discouraged North Korea from adopting a succession plan (as reported by Bloomberg). It is notable that China said this request was made some time ago.

From a new cycle perspective, it is interesting to see this come up after a spate of articles and op-ed pages talked about how threatening China is. On the one hand, the Chinese government seems to be doing the right thing by attempting to counter-balance negative news with a reminder that they do help with global security matters. But at the same time, this may be taken as somewhat self-serving and the timing may be too close to the recent negative articles to get much attention.

While the actions are real, and the role played by China important, American opinion will be more affected by sustained dialogue and actual results more than the delayed revelation that China said something to a relative of the dear leader.